Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     43.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  14.6  16.0  15.6  12.2  18.2  17.4  18.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  40.0  37.0  39.0  47.0  53.0  44.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        116.5 112.4 112.4 114.4 118.6 120.7 125.1 132.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 128.0  86.0 112.0  61.0  69.0  17.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        8.6%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       17.6%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.4%       24.4%       24.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.4%        7.8%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       43.5%       22.5%       33.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL152023 230915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     43.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  14.6  16.0  15.6  12.2  18.2  17.4  18.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%