Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     45.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.9  19.6  15.9  17.3  13.3  16.6  15.8  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  46.0  57.0  52.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 114.4 116.5 118.6 125.1 127.3 132.0 134.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  65.0  64.0  47.0  67.0 -18.0  41.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       17.4%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%        7.1%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h       13.5%        6.3%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       31.5%       21.5%       26.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 AL152023 230916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     45.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.9  19.6  15.9  17.3  13.3  16.6  15.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%