Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.1  14.3  15.2  14.3  12.6  17.6  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  56.0  35.0  34.0  44.0  31.0  22.0  37.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 116.5 118.6 122.9 125.1 129.6 132.0 132.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  26.0  44.0  24.0  50.0  21.0  26.0  31.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  -1.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.2%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.6%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       24.5%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       12.1%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h       17.3%       10.2%       13.8%
 65kt / 72h       31.6%       25.0%       28.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL152023 230916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.1  14.3  15.2  14.3  12.6  17.6  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  -1.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%