Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     46.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.3  14.9  15.5  11.7  16.5  15.2   9.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  32.0  33.0  46.0  33.0  24.0  27.0  38.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 118.6 122.9 122.9 129.6 132.0 129.6 127.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  44.0  32.0  40.0 -13.0  25.0  27.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       15.6%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        7.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.8%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       30.5%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.5%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       15.2%       16.3%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%       12.4%       12.2%
 65kt / 72h       32.0%       32.3%       32.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL152023 230916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     46.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.3  14.9  15.5  11.7  16.5  15.2   9.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%