Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  15.4  15.8  15.6   9.6  14.7  10.8  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  35.0  43.0  32.0  29.0  18.0  40.0  13.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 117.9 117.9 122.3 124.6 124.6 117.9 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  32.0  72.0   5.0  30.0  19.0  23.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  10.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.9%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.3%       27.4%       18.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       14.2%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       13.0%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       13.0%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       46.8%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.0%       13.5%
 55kt / 48h       23.6%       24.0%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       15.2%       20.1%       17.6%
 65kt / 72h       27.6%       33.2%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 AL152023 230917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  15.4  15.8  15.6   9.6  14.7  10.8  17.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  10.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%