Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  17.0  15.7  11.9  12.5   9.8  11.8  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  44.0  33.0  32.0  25.0  21.0  42.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 112.3 114.6 112.3 112.3 103.6  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  62.0  14.0  17.0  38.0  12.0  21.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.4%       16.9%       16.2%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       59.9%       48.4%
 30kt / 24h       24.4%       48.2%       36.3%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%       48.2%       35.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       47.2%       28.3%
 45kt / 36h       32.5%       73.3%       52.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       60.9%       30.4%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       44.1%       38.9%
 70kt / 48h       21.4%       42.4%       31.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       38.4%       28.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 AL152023 230917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  17.0  15.7  11.9  12.5   9.8  11.8  20.8  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%