Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.0  13.0  11.2  13.2   9.8  16.5  17.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  19.0  18.0  16.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9 105.1 107.3 107.3 105.1 102.9  94.4  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  21.0  21.0  36.0  19.0  31.0  43.0  65.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.3%       14.7%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       35.6%       54.0%       44.8%
 30kt / 24h       26.9%       42.6%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.6%       42.6%       33.6%
 40kt / 24h       11.8%       42.6%       27.2%
 45kt / 36h       30.3%       58.6%       44.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.2%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       25.1%       32.0%       28.6%
 70kt / 48h       18.8%       27.6%       23.2%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%       23.7%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 AL152023 230917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.0  13.0  11.2  13.2   9.8  16.5  17.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%