Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  11.0   7.3  11.7  11.8  10.3  15.8  21.3  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  30.0  21.0  13.0  18.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1 102.3 100.1 102.3  97.9  87.4  76.2  66.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  41.0  49.0  58.0   2.0  45.0  24.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.3%       20.0%       18.7%
 25kt / 24h       43.7%       63.6%       53.7%
 30kt / 24h       30.6%       57.8%       44.2%
 35kt / 24h       29.1%       57.8%       43.5%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       56.5%       34.8%
 45kt / 36h       32.7%       61.0%       46.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.3%       23.2%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%       34.8%       31.5%
 70kt / 48h       17.4%       26.0%       21.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.9%       16.3%       13.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 AL152023 230917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  11.0   7.3  11.7  11.8  10.3  15.8  21.3  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%