Rapid Intensification Guidance AL152023 230918 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 49.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.0 8.7 12.4 11.1 9.2 19.0 21.2 29.0 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 31.0 22.0 15.0 19.0 10.0 11.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.1 90.1 92.3 90.1 83.6 69.8 59.3 48.6 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 30.0 25.0 14.0 26.0 27.0 44.0 93.0 N N U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 -1.0 -6.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 59.1% 45.3% 52.2% 25kt / 24h 63.7% 78.1% 70.9% 30kt / 24h 63.7% 78.1% 70.9% 35kt / 24h 63.7% 78.1% 70.9% 40kt / 24h 35.9% 76.4% 56.2% 45kt / 36h 45.8% 71.5% 58.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 62.3% 31.2% 55kt / 48h 27.9% 34.7% 31.3% 70kt / 48h 13.5% 26.6% 20.1% 65kt / 72h 3.7% 9.7% 6.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 AL152023 230918 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 49.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.0 8.7 12.4 11.1 9.2 19.0 21.2 29.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 -1.0 -6.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%