Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  11.7  12.3  11.1  11.6  19.7  18.9  32.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  22.0  15.0  12.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  90.1  90.1  87.9  77.4  64.4  54.6  39.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  33.0  32.0  23.0  31.0  27.0  71.0  86.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.9%       34.5%       37.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.3%       67.7%       58.5%
 30kt / 24h       48.2%       67.7%       58.0%
 35kt / 24h       48.2%       67.7%       58.0%
 40kt / 24h       20.3%       65.9%       43.1%
 45kt / 36h       36.0%       55.7%       45.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.1%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       19.7%       20.3%       20.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%       12.8%       10.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 AL152023 230918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8  11.7  12.3  11.1  11.6  19.7  18.9  32.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  47.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%