Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.6  12.0   8.9  17.8  20.6  25.5  36.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  13.0  11.0  16.0  11.0  10.0  15.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.1  85.1  82.9  78.6  64.8  54.3  43.6  19.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  29.0   6.0  14.0  23.0  48.0  94.0 105.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  49.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.2%       31.3%       37.8%
 25kt / 24h       47.6%       61.9%       54.7%
 30kt / 24h       47.6%       61.9%       54.7%
 35kt / 24h       47.6%       61.9%       54.7%
 40kt / 24h       23.4%       60.5%       41.9%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%       38.6%       33.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.9%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%       10.5%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL152023 230918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.6  12.0   8.9  17.8  20.6  25.5  36.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  49.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%