Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  12.8  11.6  14.7  19.2  22.2  27.0  42.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.1  82.9  78.6  78.6  59.4  45.0  40.8  18.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0 -14.0  24.0  29.0  34.0  88.0 108.0  95.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  47.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   3.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       10.9%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%       29.8%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.0%       25.6%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.0%       25.6%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       25.1%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       10.5%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 AL152023 230918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  12.8  11.6  14.7  19.2  22.2  27.0  42.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  47.0  40.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   3.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%