Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  11.5  14.7  20.8  20.1  23.2  35.8  57.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  11.0  14.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  75.7  71.5  65.5  49.3  38.6  12.8  -4.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  37.0  41.0  22.0  43.0  77.0 121.0 100.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  46.0  39.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0  10.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.2%       16.7%       19.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       29.8%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       26.3%       23.3%
 35kt / 24h       20.3%       26.3%       23.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       26.1%       17.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       10.0%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL152023 230919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  11.5  14.7  20.8  20.1  23.2  35.8  57.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  46.0  39.0  35.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0  10.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%