Rapid Intensification Guidance AL152023 230919 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.10 53.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.3 16.8 21.4 21.4 22.9 30.8 48.0 69.2 F F N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 12.0 10.0 14.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.5 65.5 59.8 54.4 40.0 27.9 8.3 -16.5 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 21.0 23.0 14.0 116.0 113.0 80.0 99.0 N U U U F F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 44.0 39.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 -4.0 3.0 29.0 141.0 N N N N F N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.2% 6.3% 10.2% 25kt / 24h 7.3% 8.5% 7.9% 30kt / 24h 7.3% 5.5% 6.4% 35kt / 24h 6.5% 5.5% 6.0% 40kt / 24h 3.5% 5.5% 4.5% 45kt / 36h 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 AL152023 230919 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.10 53.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.