Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  22.0  20.3  20.9  25.3  39.0  59.9  73.0  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.5  59.8  54.4  44.6  38.6  14.7  -6.0 -19.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  24.0  28.0  58.0  87.0 105.0  80.0  86.0  N  U  U  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  46.0  41.0  36.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  17.0  88.0 147.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        5.8%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%        9.1%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        6.1%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        6.1%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        5.9%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 AL152023 230919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.