Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  19.8  19.1  23.5  31.9  46.7  65.8  81.9  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  12.0  12.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.8  44.4  34.6  30.0  17.9  -1.7 -26.5 -33.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  33.0  42.0  86.0  97.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  38.0  40.0  50.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  48.0 110.0 178.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.8%        9.0%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%       10.2%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%        7.2%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%        7.2%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 AL152023 230919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.