Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  21.7  25.1  28.8  40.8  61.7  80.9  76.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  13.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.7  33.0  28.6  25.8  -5.8 -20.9 -31.8 -36.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  50.0 101.0  76.0  95.0  95.0  77.0  60.0  U  N  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  52.0  46.0  40.0  40.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   7.0  84.0 138.0 154.0  N  N  F  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        2.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        2.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 AL152023 230920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.