Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.6  26.4  31.4  51.0  70.2  78.7  62.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.0  28.6  25.8  16.7  -2.6 -26.9 -33.7 -38.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  98.0  85.0  63.0  92.0 112.0  78.0 121.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  36.0  44.0  53.0  54.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -2.0   1.0  23.0 114.0 187.0  94.0  F  F  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        0.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.72

 AL152023 230920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.