Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  28.4  31.8  38.9  61.2  83.1  66.1  42.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  30.8  21.7  -0.8 -14.9 -26.8 -32.8 -34.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  63.0  72.0  88.0  83.0  80.0  67.0  70.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  49.0  54.0  57.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0   4.0  -5.0  -9.0  66.0 153.0 172.0  75.0  F  N  F  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.3%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.90

 AL152023 230920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.