Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.1  38.1  49.7  72.4  83.3  58.0  38.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.8  21.7  -0.8  -4.6 -21.9 -30.5 -34.1 -35.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  87.0  84.0  66.0 114.0  62.0 108.0  81.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  44.0  53.0  54.0  66.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -11.0   1.0  37.0 114.0 158.0 123.0  84.0  F  F  N VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.10

 AL152023 230920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.70     53.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.