Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  35.4  45.6  60.1  84.6  71.5  45.9  25.9  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.7  -0.8   0.0 -14.9 -27.1 -31.6 -34.4 -35.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  87.0  69.0  66.0 113.0  83.0  82.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  37.0  34.0  36.0  51.0  51.0  58.0  77.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  28.0  72.0 146.0 197.0 134.0  26.0  F  F VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.12

 AL152023 230921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.