Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.00     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  48.5  60.2  68.9  78.6  58.1  32.9  20.2  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.2   5.0 -10.9 -20.0 -25.8 -29.2 -30.3 -30.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  67.0  51.0  86.0 121.0  95.0  57.0  33.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  34.0  36.0  44.0  56.0  57.0  68.0  80.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  18.0  68.0 127.0 157.0 106.0  96.0  -8.0 VF VU VU VU VU VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.32

 AL152023 230921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.00     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.