Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152023 230921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.30     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.3  59.2  68.4  80.8  66.5  43.6  22.7  14.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          5.0  -5.4 -16.9 -22.1 -26.8 -29.6 -30.9 -31.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  75.0 100.0 115.0  73.0  82.0  34.0   8.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  34.0  41.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  77.0  79.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  68.0 114.0 159.0 168.0 124.0  18.0 -18.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.40

 AL152023 230921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.30     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.