Rapid Intensification Guidance AL152023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 42.80 42.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 148.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.3 66.9 82.4 79.6 59.5 31.3 17.1 17.1 VU VU VU VU VU U F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -5.9 -11.9 -17.1 -20.8 -24.2 -25.5 -26.5 -26.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 77.0 107.0 103.0 99.0 73.0 51.0 29.0 29.0 N F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 43.0 51.0 54.0 54.0 69.0 83.0 83.0 VU VU U U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 94.0 109.0 154.0 161.0 123.0 85.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.82 AL152023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 42.80 42.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.