Rapid Intensification Guidance AL152023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 44.20 38.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 67.1 80.6 78.9 73.3 42.2 24.3 17.4 17.4 VU VU VU VU VU N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -7.3 -12.1 -15.8 -17.8 -20.2 -21.3 -21.5 -21.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 115.0 80.0 71.0 60.0 47.0 26.0 26.0 F F N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 52.0 55.0 52.0 59.0 83.0 75.0 75.0 VU U U U U F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 129.0 118.0 159.0 168.0 122.0 12.0 -21.0 -21.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.16 AL152023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 44.20 38.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.