Rapid Intensification Guidance AL152023 230922 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.40 34.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.40 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 81.3 79.3 66.5 60.8 35.0 22.4 22.4 22.4 VU VU VU VU U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -7.1 -8.9 -11.8 -13.6 -15.2 -16.5 -16.5 -16.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 83.0 74.0 49.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 53.0 53.0 52.0 64.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 U U U U N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 142.0 146.0 197.0 115.0 106.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 VU VU VU VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.24 AL152023 230922 06UTC Storm Located at : 45.40 34.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.