Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 75.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.2 48.4 44.8 46.4 41.0 44.4 42.0 44.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 29.0 33.0 33.0 29.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.1 122.9 118.6 116.5 110.5 60.7 40.8 37.3 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 76.0 124.0 121.0 73.0 70.0 -38.0 -16.0 F N F F N N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 61.0 62.0 59.0 50.0 47.0 51.0 N N N N U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 32.0 27.0 10.0 15.0 22.0 23.0 7.0 U VU VU U U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 AL162023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 75.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.2 48.4 44.8 46.4 41.0 44.4 42.0 44.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 61.0 62.0 59.0 50.0 47.0 51.0 N N N N F F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 32.0 27.0 10.0 15.0 22.0 23.0 7.0 F VF VF F F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 28.7% 0.2% 14.4%