Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.3 46.5 47.9 45.3 38.7 41.5 40.1 47.6 VU VU VU VU U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 32.0 32.0 39.0 15.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.9 113.6 111.5 111.5 87.7 53.7 45.8 32.3 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 137.0 88.0 84.0 37.0 40.0 -23.0 23.0 F VF F N N N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 57.0 46.0 50.0 52.0 N N N N U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 19.0 15.0 13.0 25.0 17.0 15.0 4.0 VU VU U U VU U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 AL162023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.3 46.5 47.9 45.3 38.7 41.5 40.1 47.6 VF VF VF VF F VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 57.0 46.0 50.0 52.0 N N N N F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 19.0 15.0 13.0 25.0 17.0 15.0 4.0 VF VF F F VF F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 30.3% 0.4% 15.3%