Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162023 230922 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.90 75.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.6 45.1 47.2 41.6 38.8 39.6 44.4 42.1 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 31.0 33.0 37.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 112.9 108.6 108.6 108.6 82.7 48.7 40.8 34.7 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 95.0 68.0 45.0 71.0 -35.0 51.0 -8.0 F F N N N VU N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 60.0 55.0 N N U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 11.0 17.0 25.0 10.0 7.0 12.0 -1.0 U U U VU U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.78 AL162023 230922 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.90 75.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.6 45.1 47.2 41.6 38.8 39.6 44.4 42.1 VF VF VF VF F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 60.0 55.0 N N F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 11.0 17.0 25.0 10.0 7.0 12.0 -1.0 F F F VF F N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 30.1% 0.4% 15.2%