Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162023 230922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  45.3  38.8  37.3  35.3  34.2  46.2  41.8 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  31.0   9.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6  93.5  77.7  59.2  45.7  24.6  22.3  21.2  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  64.0  57.0  41.0  37.0  21.0  25.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  54.0  50.0  43.0  46.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  10.0  23.0  19.0  15.0  15.0   5.0  -6.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 AL162023 230922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.