Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162023 230923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     77.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  34.8  33.7  35.1  32.5  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.0  49.4  29.7  18.4   9.0   6.7   6.7   6.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  52.0  31.0 -22.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N VU  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  10.0  15.0  11.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.2%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.02

 AL162023 230923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     77.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.