Rapid Intensification Guidance AL162023 230923 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 38.1 37.1 34.8 42.7 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.4 39.7 26.2 19.0 16.7 18.4 18.4 18.4 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 23.0 -17.0 -34.0 42.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 N U U VU N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 U VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 9.0 16.0 10.0 2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 U U U U N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.52 AL162023 230923 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.10 77.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.