Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  13.5  12.6  15.3  18.8  26.8  29.8  35.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  40.0  57.0  49.0  38.0  35.0  70.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.5 112.4 112.4 114.4 116.5 116.5 118.6 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  40.0  67.0  29.0  77.0  67.0  93.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       13.4%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.6%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.6%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       28.1%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.6%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       21.5%       21.5%       21.5%
 70kt / 48h       21.5%        9.6%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       28.8%       15.8%       22.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 AL172023 230923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.