Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230923 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 39.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 20.1 19.7 19.3 23.9 28.2 34.1 35.0 F N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 58.0 48.0 39.0 35.0 53.0 47.0 44.0 U N N U U N N N Potential [kt] 107.4 107.4 109.4 111.5 111.5 115.7 120.1 120.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 72.0 31.0 48.0 72.0 70.0 12.0 32.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 56.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 63.0 63.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 3.5% 10.2% 6.8% 30kt / 24h 1.6% 3.9% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 15.9% 9.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.5% 2.8% 55kt / 48h 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 70kt / 48h 11.5% 4.1% 7.8% 65kt / 72h 15.9% 7.0% 11.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 AL172023 230923 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 39.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.