Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230924 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 40.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.9 18.8 19.2 24.5 24.9 30.0 31.6 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 58.0 44.0 40.0 35.0 56.0 45.0 40.0 N N N N U N N N Potential [kt] 107.4 107.4 109.4 111.5 113.6 117.9 117.9 120.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 50.0 30.0 60.0 65.0 55.0 19.0 57.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 70.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 4.0% 11.9% 8.0% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 4.7% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 4.0% 2.4% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 4.0% 2.4% 45kt / 36h 3.9% 18.7% 11.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.6% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 70kt / 48h 12.6% 5.6% 9.1% 65kt / 72h 15.1% 9.8% 12.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 AL172023 230924 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 40.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.