Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230924 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 40.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 22.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 28.5 28.5 32.3 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 52.0 40.0 36.0 40.0 65.0 43.0 36.0 N N N U N N N U Potential [kt] 102.4 102.4 104.4 104.4 108.6 110.7 112.9 115.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 27.0 47.0 82.0 61.0 32.0 31.0 26.0 N U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 61.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 69.0 69.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 N N N N N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 12.3% 8.6% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 5.4% 3.8% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 17.2% 10.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.4% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% 70kt / 48h 6.8% 4.1% 5.5% 65kt / 72h 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 AL172023 230924 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 40.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.