Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230924 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 41.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 26.2 24.7 24.8 28.9 30.2 32.3 35.0 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 47.0 40.0 34.0 45.0 69.0 36.0 40.0 N N N U N N U N Potential [kt] 95.5 97.4 99.4 99.4 101.5 105.7 107.9 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 24.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 13.0 48.0 68.0 N U N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 65.0 66.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -6.0 -4.0 -5.0 1.0 N N N N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 8.9% 6.2% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 3.8% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 3.3% 2.1% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 3.3% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 2.4% 10.2% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.3% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 3.4% 2.2% 2.8% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 1.9% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 AL172023 230924 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 41.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.