Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230924 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 42.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.4 31.5 28.1 26.9 36.8 30.2 30.9 28.7 U U N N U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 42.0 39.0 36.0 74.0 41.0 37.0 48.0 N N U U N N U N Potential [kt] 97.4 97.4 97.4 99.4 103.6 107.9 110.1 114.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 83.0 57.0 58.0 39.0 34.0 48.0 43.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 65.0 65.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 62.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.6% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 1.9% 2.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 AL172023 230924 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 42.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.