Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230925 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 42.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 32.2 30.9 33.4 33.7 31.2 30.5 33.0 U U U U U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 48.0 43.0 46.0 59.0 36.0 42.0 55.0 N N N N N U N N Potential [kt] 95.5 97.4 99.4 101.5 105.7 107.9 112.3 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 76.0 69.0 41.0 -3.0 36.0 25.0 34.0 F N N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 67.0 67.0 62.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.5% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 2.3% 1.7% 2.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 AL172023 230925 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 42.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.