Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 230925 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 37.0 37.3 37.8 33.3 36.5 27.2 35.3 U U U U U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 45.0 43.0 61.0 46.0 37.0 47.0 58.0 N N N N N U N N Potential [kt] 97.4 97.4 99.4 101.5 105.7 110.1 112.3 114.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 64.0 33.0 19.0 15.0 7.0 17.0 36.0 F N N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 55.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.5% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 AL172023 230925 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.