Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     46.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  35.0  34.3  33.1  36.8  23.4  31.9  28.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  69.0  63.0  42.0  42.0  64.0  76.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        106.5 108.6 110.7 112.9 117.3 119.6 119.6 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  28.0  18.0  54.0  11.0  -9.0  22.0  27.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   9.0   7.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        0.9%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL172023 230925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     46.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  35.0  34.3  33.1  36.8  23.4  31.9  28.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   9.0   7.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%