Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.7  32.2  35.9  32.8  26.9  34.5  29.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  68.0  46.0  37.0  52.0  74.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        108.6 110.7 112.9 115.1 117.3 119.6 122.0 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  39.0  19.0  32.0  -3.0  14.0  10.0  46.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  58.0  56.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        1.0%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL172023 230926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.7  32.2  35.9  32.8  26.9  34.5  29.7  F  F  N  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  58.0  56.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%