Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  32.4  25.4  25.7  31.5  24.2  31.8  19.3  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  45.0  58.0  72.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  70.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.1 117.3 119.6 119.6 122.0 124.3 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   7.0 -14.0  13.0   6.0 -11.0 -15.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        1.8%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 AL172023 230926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  32.4  25.4  25.7  31.5  24.2  31.8  19.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%