Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.4  27.2  24.4  22.1  29.8  20.2  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  47.0  53.0  72.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        119.6 119.6 122.0 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  34.0  28.0   0.0 -14.0   0.0  46.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        9.2%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        9.8%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        4.7%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        1.9%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.6%       10.0%       16.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 AL172023 230927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.4  27.2  24.4  22.1  29.8  20.2  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%