Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.5  19.2  20.9  22.6  16.9  18.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  55.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  18.0   7.0   5.0  25.0   0.0   0.0  27.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        3.7%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       24.2%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       12.2%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       11.8%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       11.8%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       21.6%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.9%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%       14.4%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        6.6%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       36.2%       20.2%       28.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL172023 230927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.5  19.2  20.9  22.6  16.9  18.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%