Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.1  24.8  25.3  23.1  20.1  21.8  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  49.0  66.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  34.0  76.0  38.0   7.0  24.0  35.0  81.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.4%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       21.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       10.1%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        9.3%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        9.3%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       16.5%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%       11.4%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%        4.1%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       41.9%       15.7%       28.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL172023 230928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.1  24.8  25.3  23.1  20.1  21.8  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%