Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     54.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  25.0  24.4  21.9  23.0  24.8  22.6  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  53.0  68.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  52.0  38.0 -29.0  18.0  -4.0  55.0  79.0  N  N  N VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       14.1%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        6.5%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        6.0%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       11.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.0%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        2.4%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       32.9%       11.2%       22.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL172023 230928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     54.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  25.0  24.4  21.9  23.0  24.8  22.6  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%