Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.5  20.4  21.0  17.3  17.4  22.1  21.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  37.0 -25.0   5.0  -4.0 -19.0   0.0  48.0  N  N VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.2%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       14.3%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        6.3%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.8%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       12.9%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%        9.1%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        3.4%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       27.4%       11.4%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 AL172023 230928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.5  20.4  21.0  17.3  17.4  22.1  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%