Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.7  21.4  19.7  20.6  18.7  16.7  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -36.0 -10.0   6.0  23.0 -14.0 -40.0  41.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.6%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        7.1%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        5.8%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        1.9%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       26.1%        8.7%       17.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL172023 230928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.7  21.4  19.7  20.6  18.7  16.7  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%