Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     54.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.3  16.6  18.9  21.9  25.2  24.2  28.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0   2.0   0.0  10.0  32.0 -17.0   1.0  16.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.3%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        5.8%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       25.7%        8.6%       17.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL172023 230929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     54.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.3  16.6  18.9  21.9  25.2  24.2  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%